Category: Founder’s Opinions

  • Valuing Startups: A Practical Guide with Dalmilling Capital

    Valuing Startups: A Practical Guide with Dalmilling Capital

    Valuing a startup is tricky, especially when it hasn’t earned a cent. There are no profits. No customers. No track record.

    But that doesn’t mean you avoid valuation. In fact, getting it right at the beginning might be the most important step of all.

    In this article, I’ll walk you through how we valued Dalmilling Capital, a holding company we’ve been building from the ground up. We’ll cover:

    • How we decided on share count and price
    • The exact method and formulas we used
    • What the valuation tells us going forward

    Step 1: Set a Philosophy Before Setting a Price

    Before touching a spreadsheet, we made a philosophical decision:
    We would not value our company based on potential.

    Why?

    Because most early-stage valuations are inflated, using projections that rarely materialise. That’s not how we should operate, and it’s not how we want to think.

    So instead, we anchored our valuation in tangible contributions, the capital that had actually been raised and was sitting in the bank.


    Step 2: Start With Book Value

    Our actual cash raised:
    $1,000

    That became our initial book value.

    No goodwill. No intangibles. No IP premiums. Just clean, contributed capital.

    We then divided the company into 10,000 shares, which made the per-share value:Share Price=1,00010,000=$0.10 per shareShare Price=10,0001,000​=$0.10 per share

    This gave us a clear and simple cap table:

    ShareholderShares HeldOwnership %Contribution
    Founder10,000100%$1,000

    It’s not complex and that’s the point. Anyone looking at this can understand where the number comes from.


    Why 10,000 Shares?

    We picked 10,000 shares for simplicity. It creates a nice balance:

    • Small enough to keep it human
    • Large enough to allow for fractional ownership later
    • Easy mental math: every share = 0.01% of the company

    You could use 1,000 or 100,000. What matters is consistency and clarity.


    Step 3: Build Value Through Operations, Not Assumptions

    At this point, the valuation is not based on revenue or earnings. It’s purely equity-based.

    That means our future growth in valuation will have to come from:

    • Deploying capital into high-quality public equities
    • Later, acquiring or investing in small businesses with strong cash flow
    • Retained earnings and reinvestment.

    We won’t revalue the company until we’ve earned a revaluation.


    Intrinsic Value Model (Once We Have Cash Flows)

    Eventually, as Dalmilling begins generating cash flow, we’ll use a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model just as we would do for our portfolio companies.

    Here’s a preview of what that would look like:

    Intrinsic Value = ∑ (FCFt / (1 + r)^t) + (Terminal Value / (1 + r)^n)

    Where:

    • FCF = Free Cash Flow
    • r = Discount rate (e.g., 10%)
    • n = Final year in model (e.g., 5)
    • Terminal Value = FCF in year 5 × (1 + g) / (r – g)

    But again that only comes into play when we’re a real operating business with cash flow.


    Summary of Our Startup Valuation

    MetricValue
    Capital Raised$1,000
    Number of Shares10,000
    Price per Share$0.10
    Book Value$1,000
    Intrinsic ValueTBD
    Revaluation ConditionsOnly after earnings or acquisitions

    We want each dollar of shareholder capital to feel sacred. That means no games, no hype, no inflated dreams.

    It’s a slow path. But it’s one we trust.

  • Why Dalmilling Capital May Be Interested in Alfabs Australia Limited ASX:AAL

    Why Dalmilling Capital May Be Interested in Alfabs Australia Limited ASX:AAL

    My perspectives…

    Disclaimer: Nothing I say in this post should be taken as investment or financial advice. I write about companies that interest me and I will occasionally share an opinion.

    That should not be taken as me telling you to invest in that company.

    Dalmilling Capital is one person with a thousand dollars.

    As I was reading my reports, I came across what I thought was an amazing debut to the Australian Stock Exchange for a company.

    This company reported the following:

    • Net profit after tax $5.7 million up 39%
    • Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation & amortisation $12.5 million up 21%
    • Maiden fully franked dividend of 1.50 cents per share – payout ratio of 75%
    • Earnings per share of 2.00 cents
    • Net debt of $11.0 million

    To top it off, it appears the management were bullish for FY25.

    So thought perhaps I should look at the company and gain a better understanding. Can I understand what they do, and offer myself some competing perspectives, if you will.

    Right. This is a long post. If you have made it this far, you might as well indulge me.

    1. Long-Term Industrial Exposure and Steady Cash Flows

    Pro:
    Alfabs operates in essential sectors such as mining, heavy engineering, and industrial services that underpin much of Australia’s economic infrastructure. For a holding company such as ours, this business could represent a steady, albeit modest, cash flow stream with less volatility than tech or consumer-facing businesses. Its recent IPO and revenue growth reflect operational momentum that could compound over time, fitting a patient capital approach focused on sustainable returns.

    Con:
    Now, there are relatively thin margins, and exposure to commodity cycles introduce real business risk. Mining and infrastructure demand can be lumpy and sensitive to macroeconomic shifts and government spending priorities. It is possible that there could be are struggle against larger competitors with more pricing power and economies of scale.


    2. Alignment with Dalmilling’s Focus on Businesses Built to Last

    Pro:
    Dalmilling Capital’s founder (me) values legacy and endurance, and Alfabs’ roots in manufacturing and heavy industrial services reflect old-school industrial strength. (It appears to have family background) and I think the management cares deeply about the people it employees and the company is embedded in regional economies. For that reason, I do not believe it would disappear overnight. There appears to be sound investments in operational efficiency, recent capital raising, and diversified service segments, signals an ambition to scale responsibly. This aligns with Dalmilling’s preference for companies that build foundations for long-term wealth, rather than speculative or trend-driven ventures.

    Con:
    On the flip side, it is a recent ASX entrant with a short public track record (on the ASX). The company’s growth trajectory and capital structure are still being shaped, and it’s too early to say whether it has found a defensible moat or can withstand economic downturns without significant stress. The risk of being a “small fish in a big pond” in the industrial services market could mean it lacks the strategic resilience Dalmilling seeks in its holdings. (I’m sure you chuckled there)


    3. Potential for Value Creation Through Operational Improvements

    Pro:
    Dalmilling Capital might see an opportunity to add value by leveraging its experience to improve Alfabs’ governance, cost structure, or strategic partnerships (Yes, with $1000). Given Alfabs’ fragmented business segments; mining, engineering, coatings, transport, there may be room to consolidate operations or refine focus for better margins. Dalmilling’s patient approach could support such restructuring without the pressure for short-term returns, aiming to unlock hidden value over years rather than quarters. (Let’s dream big)

    Con:
    Conversely, the management and operational model appears to be lean and effective, given its recent growth and market entry. Interference from an external investor could disrupt existing dynamics or distract management from executing their strategy. The capital and effort required might not justify the incremental gains, especially if the fundamentals are primarily dictated by external commodity and infrastructure cycles.


    4. Exposure to Infrastructure Growth Themes in Australia

    Pro:
    Infrastructure spending and mining investment cycles continue to receive government and private sector support. The service offerings are positioned to benefit as projects ramp up, providing a natural hedge against inflation and a source of growing revenues. Dalmilling’s portfolio, if seeking more industrial exposure, could diversify risks and tap into these cyclical upswings while still favoring quality companies.

    Con:
    As you know, infrastructure cycles are notoriously unpredictable and can be derailed by political changes, funding shifts, or global economic shocks and the dependence on these cycles adds cyclical risk to Dalmilling’s portfolio, which may already have exposures in related sectors. There relatively small size limits its ability to capture a meaningful share of large infrastructure programs, capping growth potential.


    Summary

    In essence, we are presented with a mixed proposition. Alfabs offers exposure to foundational industrial services with potential for steady cash flows and long-term durability. Yet, its small scale, sector cyclicality, and relatively unproven public track record pose material risks.

    The decision hinges on whether Dalmilling prioritises:

    • Patient capital willing to help build and strengthen a young industrial business,
    • Or prefers more mature, established companies with clearer competitive moats and stable earnings.

    Neither stance is inherently right or wrong; each reflects a different philosophy about what “built to last” means in practice.

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    A screen grab of the Alfabs Group website